Abstract
This paper points out the importance of obtaining accurate estimates of short and long range energy needs for effective planning. Among the forecasting methods discussed are time series analysis, causal methods, and qualitative methods. Each method is further classified according to its forms and analyzed with respect to its applicability to energy related quantities. Included among the qualitative approaches is the Delphi method which is proposed for energy forecasting to aid in formulating a dynamic national energy policy. After a brief illustration of the essential features of the Delphi process, its possible use in formulating a national energy policy is explained. Its suitability to predict the effects of various policy decisions on energy related matters and to gain insights that may not be available through the use of conventional techniques is emphasized.
Recommended Citation
Omurtag, Yildirim and Murray, Thomas J., "Forecasting as an Aid to Establishing a National Energy Policy" (1976). UMR-MEC Conference on Energy / UMR-DNR Conference on Energy. 133, pp. 247-254.
https://scholarsmine.mst.edu/umr-mec/133
Meeting Name
3rd Annual UMR-MEC Conference on Energy (1976: Oct. 12-14, Rolla, MO)
Department(s)
Engineering Management and Systems Engineering
Document Type
Article - Conference proceedings
Session
Energy Management II
Document Version
Final Version
File Type
text
Language(s)
English
Rights
© 1977 University of Missouri--Rolla, All rights reserved.
Publication Date
12 Oct 1976
