Ameliorating Mental Mistakes in Tradeoff Studies

Abstract

Tradeoff studies are broadly recognized and mandated as the method for simultaneously considering multiple alternatives with many criteria, and as such are recommended in the Capability Maturity Model Integration (CMMI) Decision Analysis and Resolution (DAR) process. Tradeoff studies, which involve human numerical judgment, calibration, and data updating, are often approached with under confidence by analysts and are often distrusted by decision makers. The decision-making fields of Judgment and Decision Making, Cognitive Science and Experimental Economics have built up a large body of research on human biases and errors in considering numerical and criteria-based choices. Relationships between experiments in these fields and the elements of tradeoff studies show that tradeoff studies are susceptible to human mental mistakes: This paper indicates ways to eliminate the presence, or ameliorate the effects of mental mistakes on tradeoff studies. © 2007 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. Syst Eng 10: 222-240, 2007

Department(s)

Engineering Management and Systems Engineering

Keywords and Phrases

Alternative Solutions; Cognitive Biases; Combining Functions; Decision Analysis; Decision Making under Uncertainty; Evaluation Criteria; Evaluation Data

International Standard Serial Number (ISSN)

1098-1241

Document Type

Article - Journal

Document Version

Citation

File Type

text

Language(s)

English

Rights

© 2007 John Wiley & Sons, All rights reserved.

Publication Date

01 Jan 2007

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