"Assessing The Impact of Radar-Rainfall Uncertainty on Streamflow Simul" by Nicolás Velásquez, Witold F. Krajewski et al.
 

Abstract

Hydrological models and quantitative precipitation estimation (QPE) are critical elements of flood forecasting systems. Both are subject to considerable uncertainties. Quantifying their relative contribution to the forecasted streamflow and flood uncertainty has remained challenging. Past work documented in the literature focused on one of these elements separately from the other. With this in mind, we present a systematic approach to assess the impact of QPE uncertainty in streamflow forecasting. Our approach explores the operational Iowa Flood Center (IFC) hydrological model performance after altering two radar-based QPE products. We ran the Hillslope Link Model (HLM) for Iowa between 2015 and 2020, altering the Multi-Radar/Multi-Sensor (MRMS) system and the specific attenuation-based (IFCA) IFC radar-derived product with a multiplicative error term. We assessed the forecasting system performance at 112 USGS streamflow gauges using the altered QPE products. Our results suggest that addressing rainfall uncertainty has the potential for much-improved flood forecasting spatially and seasonally. We identified spatial patterns linking prediction improvements to the radar's location and the magnitude of rainfall. Also, we observed seasonal trends suggesting underestimations during the cold season (October–April). The patterns for different radar products are generally similar but also show some differences, implying that the QPE algorithm plays a role. This study's results are a step toward separating modeling and QPE uncertainties. Future work involving larger areas and different hydrological and error models is essential to improve our understanding of the impact of QPE uncertainty.

Department(s)

Civil, Architectural and Environmental Engineering

Publication Status

Open Access

Comments

Mid-America Transportation Center, University of Nebraska-Lincoln, Grant 69A3551747107

Keywords and Phrases

Hydrologic models; Operational forecasting; Radars/Radar observations; Uncertainty

International Standard Serial Number (ISSN)

1525-7541; 1525-755X

Document Type

Article - Journal

Document Version

Final Version

File Type

text

Language(s)

English

Rights

© 2025 American Meteorological Society, All rights reserved.

Creative Commons Licensing

Creative Commons License
This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.

Publication Date

01 Feb 2025

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