Uncertainty Considerations for Ballistic Limit Equations
Abstract
The overall risk for any spacecraft system is typically determined using a Probabilistic Risk Assessment (PRA). a PRA determines the overall risk associated with a particular mission by factoring in all known risks to the spacecraft during its mission. the threat to mission and human life posed by the micro-meteoroid and orbital debris (MMOD) environment is one of the risks. NASA uses the BUMPER II program to provide point estimate predictions of MMOD risk for the Space Shuttle and the ISS. However, BUMPER II does not provide uncertainty bounds or confidence intervals for its predictions. in this paper, we present possible approaches through which uncertainty bounds can be developed for the various damage prediction and ballistic limit equations encoded within the Shuttle and Station versions of BUMPER II.
Recommended Citation
W. P. Schonberg et al., "Uncertainty Considerations for Ballistic Limit Equations," European Space Agency, (Special Publication) ESA SP, no. 587, pp. 477 - 482, European Space Agency, Aug 2005.
Department(s)
Civil, Architectural and Environmental Engineering
International Standard Serial Number (ISSN)
0379-6566
Document Type
Article - Conference proceedings
Document Version
Citation
File Type
text
Language(s)
English
Rights
© 2024 European Space Agency, All rights reserved.
Publication Date
01 Aug 2005
