Abstract

Contrary to the prevailing view that automation complements skilled labor in advanced economies, this study examines the unintended consequences of robot adoption in emerging markets. Drawing on strategic human capital theory, we exploit China's manufacturing sector as a natural experiment to identify the causal impact of industrial intelligence on firm-level innovation. Using a unique dataset of more than 90,000 public and private firms from the National Enterprise Innovation Database (2008–2014), we uncover a counterintuitive result: robot adoption significantly reduces firm innovation, which is notably more pronounced for private-owned firms and those with weaker innovation capabilities. Mediation analyses further show that this inhibitory effect operates through the degradation of firms' talent structures, as robots substitute for the technical middle layer essential for R&D absorption and knowledge integration. Moreover, two structural constraints moderate and amplify this effect. Path dependence leads firms to deploy robots to expand low-value, scale-oriented production, while high costs of imported equipment crowd out investments in human capital. Together, these findings reveal the challenges emerging economies face in converting hardware investment into innovation-driven growth without parallel talent upgrading.

Department(s)

Business and Information Technology

Comments

National Natural Science Foundation of China, Grant 72404049

Keywords and Phrases

Emerging economies; Firm innovation; Path dependence; Robot adoption; Strategic human capital; Talent structure degradation

International Standard Serial Number (ISSN)

1572-9958; 0217-4561

Document Type

Article - Journal

Document Version

Citation

File Type

text

Language(s)

English

Rights

© 2026 Springer, All rights reserved.

Publication Date

01 Jan 2026

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