Abstract

This study systematically evaluated the changes in motor vehicle crashes that occurred on the Missouri Interstate highway system following the implementation of the Missouri Strategic Highway Safety Plan (MSHSP) between 2004 and 2007. The MSHSP implemented crash injury reduction strategies in enforcement, education, engineering, and public policy. Empirical Bayesian methods were commonly used to evaluate the effects of any change in safety as a result of countermeasures. This paper presents a simple new approach to evaluating the effects of Missouri's safety plans on roadway crashes. For crash data associated with traffic and roadway characteristics, negative binomial regression models were developed for the before-through-change conditions using a variable that was set to zero for preimplementation years and gradually increased over the implementation years to reach a plateau at the conclusion or the safety plans. The models developed for the various collision types and crash severities were used to estimate the expected number of crashes at roadway segments in 2008, assuming with and without the implementation of MSHSP. This procedure estimated significant reductions of 10% in the overall number of crashes and a 30% reduction for fatal crashes. Reductions in the number of collision types were estimated to be 18% to 37%. The theoretical results indicated that the MSHSP was a successful policy in reducing the number of crashes and decreasing fatalities by reducing the most severe collision types such us head-on crashes. The results are also consistent with many international studies and suggested that the safety strategic plans should lie promoted as an effective treatment for highways.

Department(s)

Mathematics and Statistics

Second Department

Civil, Architectural and Environmental Engineering

Publication Status

Available Access

International Standard Book Number (ISBN)

978-030929560-4

International Standard Serial Number (ISSN)

2169-4052; 0361-1981

Document Type

Article - Journal

Document Version

Citation

File Type

text

Language(s)

English

Rights

© 2024 SAGE Publications, All rights reserved.

Publication Date

01 Jan 2014

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