Location

San Diego, California

Session Start Date

3-26-2001

Session End Date

3-31-2001

Abstract

Lateral spreading is the mostly horizontal movement of gently sloping ground due to liquefaction in shallow soil deposits. To assess the seismic hazards related to lateral spreading, estimates are needed of the maximum potential ground movement at these sites. One approach to this problem is to predict, using empirical models, the mean and standard deviation of the displacement magnitudes across the surface of a lateral spread. Then, using a probability density function, the maximum likely deformation at the site can be predicted with a suitable degree of conservatism. In the analysis described here, probability density functions are studied for modeling the variation in horizontal displacements measured in twenty-nine case studies of lateral spreading. The quality of fit between the measured displacements and the normal, lognormal, and gamma distributions are evaluated using statistical goodness-of-lit tests. The results show that the gamma distribution provides a good representation of the variation in displacement magnitudes across a slide area. Moreover, the 99.5 percentile of the gamma distribution is found to yield reasonable, conservative estimates of maximum horizontal movement. Using this approach, with appropriate percentiles of the gamma distribution, maximum likely movements can be estimated in a rational, probabilistic manner.

Department(s)

Civil, Architectural and Environmental Engineering

Appears In

International Conferences on Recent Advances in Geotechnical Earthquake Engineering and Soil Dynamics

Meeting Name

Fourth Conference

Publisher

University of Missouri--Rolla

Publication Date

3-26-2001

Document Version

Final Version

Rights

© 2001 University of Missouri--Rolla, All rights reserved.

Document Type

Article - Conference proceedings

File Type

text

Language

English

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Mar 26th, 12:00 AM Mar 31st, 12:00 AM

Predicting the Maximum and Distribution of Displacements on Liquefaction-Induced Lateral Spreads

San Diego, California

Lateral spreading is the mostly horizontal movement of gently sloping ground due to liquefaction in shallow soil deposits. To assess the seismic hazards related to lateral spreading, estimates are needed of the maximum potential ground movement at these sites. One approach to this problem is to predict, using empirical models, the mean and standard deviation of the displacement magnitudes across the surface of a lateral spread. Then, using a probability density function, the maximum likely deformation at the site can be predicted with a suitable degree of conservatism. In the analysis described here, probability density functions are studied for modeling the variation in horizontal displacements measured in twenty-nine case studies of lateral spreading. The quality of fit between the measured displacements and the normal, lognormal, and gamma distributions are evaluated using statistical goodness-of-lit tests. The results show that the gamma distribution provides a good representation of the variation in displacement magnitudes across a slide area. Moreover, the 99.5 percentile of the gamma distribution is found to yield reasonable, conservative estimates of maximum horizontal movement. Using this approach, with appropriate percentiles of the gamma distribution, maximum likely movements can be estimated in a rational, probabilistic manner.