Location
San Diego, California
Presentation Date
29 Mar 2001, 7:30 pm - 9:30 pm
Abstract
Lateral spreading is the mostly horizontal movement of gently sloping ground due to liquefaction in shallow soil deposits. To assess the seismic hazards related to lateral spreading, estimates are needed of the maximum potential ground movement at these sites. One approach to this problem is to predict, using empirical models, the mean and standard deviation of the displacement magnitudes across the surface of a lateral spread. Then, using a probability density function, the maximum likely deformation at the site can be predicted with a suitable degree of conservatism. In the analysis described here, probability density functions are studied for modeling the variation in horizontal displacements measured in twenty-nine case studies of lateral spreading. The quality of fit between the measured displacements and the normal, lognormal, and gamma distributions are evaluated using statistical goodness-of-lit tests. The results show that the gamma distribution provides a good representation of the variation in displacement magnitudes across a slide area. Moreover, the 99.5 percentile of the gamma distribution is found to yield reasonable, conservative estimates of maximum horizontal movement. Using this approach, with appropriate percentiles of the gamma distribution, maximum likely movements can be estimated in a rational, probabilistic manner.
Department(s)
Civil, Architectural and Environmental Engineering
Meeting Name
4th International Conference on Recent Advances in Geotechnical Earthquake Engineering and Soil Dynamics
Publisher
University of Missouri--Rolla
Document Version
Final Version
Rights
© 2001 University of Missouri--Rolla, All rights reserved.
Creative Commons Licensing
This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-Noncommercial-No Derivative Works 4.0 License.
Document Type
Article - Conference proceedings
File Type
text
Language
English
Recommended Citation
Rauch, Alan F. and Martin, James R. II, "Predicting the Maximum and Distribution of Displacements on Liquefaction-Induced Lateral Spreads" (2001). International Conferences on Recent Advances in Geotechnical Earthquake Engineering and Soil Dynamics. 13.
https://scholarsmine.mst.edu/icrageesd/04icrageesd/session04/13
Included in
Predicting the Maximum and Distribution of Displacements on Liquefaction-Induced Lateral Spreads
San Diego, California
Lateral spreading is the mostly horizontal movement of gently sloping ground due to liquefaction in shallow soil deposits. To assess the seismic hazards related to lateral spreading, estimates are needed of the maximum potential ground movement at these sites. One approach to this problem is to predict, using empirical models, the mean and standard deviation of the displacement magnitudes across the surface of a lateral spread. Then, using a probability density function, the maximum likely deformation at the site can be predicted with a suitable degree of conservatism. In the analysis described here, probability density functions are studied for modeling the variation in horizontal displacements measured in twenty-nine case studies of lateral spreading. The quality of fit between the measured displacements and the normal, lognormal, and gamma distributions are evaluated using statistical goodness-of-lit tests. The results show that the gamma distribution provides a good representation of the variation in displacement magnitudes across a slide area. Moreover, the 99.5 percentile of the gamma distribution is found to yield reasonable, conservative estimates of maximum horizontal movement. Using this approach, with appropriate percentiles of the gamma distribution, maximum likely movements can be estimated in a rational, probabilistic manner.
