Investigating The Asymmetric Impacts Of Protectionism And Liberalization On Construction Material Prices

Abstract

Supply chain disruptions significantly influence both the prices and outputs of the construction industry. In the wake of COVID-19, recent geopolitical tensions, and evolving trade policies - including import tariffs - the need for resilient and strategically sourced supply chains has become increasingly critical. The prices of the construction materials are tied to the manufacturing industry and the trading partners. Despite these interdependencies, the effects of import shares and supply source selection on construction material prices remain understudied. The goal of this paper is to analyze the impact of the different international trade policies on the prices of main materials in the construction industry. To this end, it employs a framework encompassing the Nonlinear Autoregressive Distributed Lag (NARDL) model modeling approach to capture both the asymmetric responses and feedback mechanisms among international trade variables and material prices. The framework is demonstrated using the prices of steel, cement, and lumber in the US from 2008 to 2024, though it is adaptable to other national contexts. Results reveal the short- and long-term impacts of import shares on the construction prices. The outcomes of this research aid construction planners in anticipating the effects of abrupt changes in import volumes triggered by shifts in trade policies.

Department(s)

Civil, Architectural and Environmental Engineering

International Standard Book Number (ISBN)

978-078448698-6

Document Type

Article - Conference proceedings

Document Version

Citation

File Type

text

Language(s)

English

Rights

© 2026 American Society of Civil Engineers (ASCE), All rights reserved.

Publication Date

01 Jan 2026

Link to Full Text

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