Forecasting Underground Coal Mine Productivity with a Microcomputer


The development and use of a productivity forecast model for an underground coal mine is presented. With the aid of a microcomputer, an extensive, interactive, multiple linear regression analysis was performed on a set of mine operating data, and 93% of the variability in section productivity is accounted for by the fitted linear model. Productivity is forecast as a function of seven variables which characterize physical mining conditions, expected levels of downtime, and the quality of production crew performance. The model can be used as a tool in developing productivity forecasts for 5-year and annual operating plans or for short-term (e. g. , quarterly) revisions. Productivity forecasts for new sections and for operating sections with changing conditions or personnel are made for illustration. The model will allow the mine manager to eliminate historical subjectiveness from predicting productivity or temper his subjectivity with much needed objectivity.

Meeting Name

Proceedings of the Second Conference on the Use of Computers in the Coal Industry.


Mining Engineering

Document Type

Article - Conference proceedings

Document Version


File Type





© 1985 American Institute of Mining, Metallurgical and Petroleum Engineers (AIME), All rights reserved.

Publication Date

01 Jan 1985

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