Location

San Diego, California

Session Start Date

3-26-2001

Session End Date

3-31-2001

Abstract

Despite a proliferation of papers on quantitative risk analysis for dams during the past twenty years, risk analysis has not found widespread application in dam safety practice. Recent experience suggests that, despite a great deal of enthusiasm in the 1990’s, the professional opinion concerning the usefulness of risk analysis in dam safety practice is almost as divided now as it was in the early 1980’s. This paper presents an account of the history and development of risk analysis ln dam safety practice in the field of geotechnical earthquake engineering since its inception in the early 1960’s to September 2000. Against this background, and with regard to the discussion of the State-of-the-Art/Practice, the paper describes the latest attempts to quantify risk associated with earth dams for two failure modes, seismically induced liquefaction and a proposed procedure for seismically induced non-liquefaction deformation failure. To overcome the difficulties in reporting a complete risk analysis, the case study in Part II is presented in a way that will enable the profession to obtain an initial appreciation of what is involved in quantified risk analysis for dams. Concerning the State-of-the-Art/Practice, the paper presents background to what are essentially proposed practices as there is as yet no broadly accepted standard of practice for defensible analysis of risk associated with large dams.

Department(s)

Civil, Architectural and Environmental Engineering

Appears In

International Conferences on Recent Advances in Geotechnical Earthquake Engineering and Soil Dynamics

Meeting Name

Fourth Conference

Publisher

University of Missouri--Rolla

Publication Date

3-26-2001

Document Version

Final Version

Rights

© 2001 University of Missouri--Rolla, All rights reserved.

Document Type

Article - Conference proceedings

File Type

text

Language

English

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Mar 26th, 12:00 AM Mar 31st, 12:00 AM

Risk Analysis in Geotechnical and Earthquake Engineering, State-of-the-Art Practice of Embankment Dams

San Diego, California

Despite a proliferation of papers on quantitative risk analysis for dams during the past twenty years, risk analysis has not found widespread application in dam safety practice. Recent experience suggests that, despite a great deal of enthusiasm in the 1990’s, the professional opinion concerning the usefulness of risk analysis in dam safety practice is almost as divided now as it was in the early 1980’s. This paper presents an account of the history and development of risk analysis ln dam safety practice in the field of geotechnical earthquake engineering since its inception in the early 1960’s to September 2000. Against this background, and with regard to the discussion of the State-of-the-Art/Practice, the paper describes the latest attempts to quantify risk associated with earth dams for two failure modes, seismically induced liquefaction and a proposed procedure for seismically induced non-liquefaction deformation failure. To overcome the difficulties in reporting a complete risk analysis, the case study in Part II is presented in a way that will enable the profession to obtain an initial appreciation of what is involved in quantified risk analysis for dams. Concerning the State-of-the-Art/Practice, the paper presents background to what are essentially proposed practices as there is as yet no broadly accepted standard of practice for defensible analysis of risk associated with large dams.