Conservative Thirty Calendar Day Stock Prediction Using a Probabilistic Neural Network

H. Tan
Donald C. Wunsch, Missouri University of Science and Technology
Danil V. Prokhorov

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Describes a system that predicts significant short-term price movement in a single stock utilizing conservative strategies. We use preprocessing techniques, then train a probabilistic neural network to predict only price gains large enough to create a significant profit opportunity. Our primary objective is to limit false predictions (known in the pattern recognition literature as false alarms). False alarms are more significant than missed opportunities, because false alarms acted upon lead to losses. We can achieve false alarm rates as low as 5.7% with the correct system design and parameterization.