Doctoral Dissertations
Abstract
"Two probabilistic models are offered as a means for quantitatively determining contingency in a lump-sum bid. The first model is based on the isolated project and requires subjective evaluation of probabilities associated with the individual elements of the estimate. Contingency is defined as a function of the standard deviation of project field costs. Procedures are developed to obtain the variance of the total field cost from three-value estimates of the primary quantities. The second model considers the business as a stochastic process with an initial risk reserve and a positive risk loading, and contingency in this model is a function of the risk loading. Output from the project model is found to be approximately normal and insensitive to the type of input distribution. Covariance among accounts in the estimate are shown to be highly significant. The business model produces a significantly lower value for contingency than the project model and indicates that contingency is a lower bound on the contractor's fee and must be handled in a fiscally responsible manner"--Abstract, page ii.
Advisor(s)
Andrews, William A., 1922-2009
Committee Member(s)
Hansen, Peter G., 1927-2010
Best, John, 1925-2015
Senne, Joseph H.
Gillett, Billy E.
Department(s)
Civil, Architectural and Environmental Engineering
Degree Name
Ph. D. in Civil Engineering
Publisher
University of Missouri--Rolla
Publication Date
1972
Pagination
ix, 97 pages
Note about bibliography
Includes bibliographical references (pages 60-61).
Rights
© 1972 James E. Spooner, All rights reserved.
Document Type
Dissertation - Open Access
File Type
text
Language
English
Subject Headings
Building -- Estimates
Letting of contracts
Computer simulation -- Design
Thesis Number
T 2635
Print OCLC #
6038986
Electronic OCLC #
878049430
Link to Catalog Record
Recommended Citation
Spooner, James E., "Probabilistic models for construction estimating and bidding" (1972). Doctoral Dissertations. 1859.
https://scholarsmine.mst.edu/doctoral_dissertations/1859