A Multi-Step Uncertainty Quantification Approach Applied to Hypersonic Reentry Flows


The objective of this study was to introduce and demonstrate a computationally efficient, multistep uncertaintyquantification approach for high-fidelity, hypersonic reentry flow simulations, which may include large numbers ofaleatory and epistemic uncertainties. The multistep uncertainty quantification approach included several keycomponents,includingasensitivity-baseddimensionreductionprocessthatusedalocalsensitivityanalysisatselectedsample locations to approximate global sensitivities. Other components included a method to update existingdeterministic samples after dimension reduction and a modified point-collocation nonintrusive polynomial chaosmethod that incorporates existing local sensitivity information. The multistep uncertainty quantification approachwas demonstrated on two model problems. The first was a model for stagnation point convective heat transfer inhypersonic flow. Mixed uncertainty quantification analysis results in reduced dimensions compared well withMonteCarlosimulations.Thesecondproblemwasahigh-fidelity,computationalfluiddynamicsmodelforstagnationpoint radiative heat flux on a Hypersonic Inflatable Aerodynamic Decelerator during a Mars entry. The modelconsisted of 93 uncertain parameters, coming from both flowfield and radiation modeling. The model was reduced toten and five uncertain variables, accounting for 95 and 90% of the total output variance, respectively. Pure aleatory,epistemic, and mixed uncertainty quantification analyses were in agreement with previous work, proving thepotential and applicability of the multistep uncertainty quantification process for complex hypersonic reentry flowmodels.

Meeting Name

51st AIAA Aerospace Sciences Meeting including the New Horizons Forum and Aerospace Exposition


Mechanical and Aerospace Engineering

Document Type

Article - Conference proceedings

Document Version


File Type





© 2013 American Institute of Aeronautics and Astronautics (AIAA), All rights reserved.

This document is currently not available here.