This paper points out the importance of obtaining accurate estimates of short and long range energy needs for effective planning. Among the forecasting methods discussed are time series analysis, causal methods, and qualitative methods. Each method is further classified according to its forms and analyzed with respect to its applicability to energy related quantities. Included among the qualitative approaches is the Delphi method which is proposed for energy forecasting to aid in formulating a dynamic national energy policy. After a brief illustration of the essential features of the Delphi process, its possible use in formulating a national energy policy is explained. Its suitability to predict the effects of various policy decisions on energy related matters and to gain insights that may not be available through the use of conventional techniques is emphasized.
Omurtag, Yildirim and Murray, Thomas J., "Forecasting as an Aid to Establishing a National Energy Policy" (1976). UMR-MEC Conference on Energy. 133.
3rd Annual UMR-MEC Conference on Energy (1976: Oct. 12-14, Rolla, MO)
Engineering Management and Systems Engineering
Article - Conference proceedings
Energy Management II
© 1977 University of Missouri--Rolla, All rights reserved.
12 Oct 1976