"This work describes a sensitivity analysis of the nine major system variables of the urban model postulated by Dr. Jay W. Forrester in his book Urban Dynamics. This model simulates the growth of a city from a nearly empty land area through a 250 year life cycle. Using small perturbations about the system trajectories, sensitivity matrices were computed at 135 years (growth period) and 240 years (equilibrium). The results show a matrix heavily weighted to give large sensitivity coefficients to the three housing variables, the PH sector being the most sensitive. Each of the housing sectors was analyzed further to determine which feedback loops contributed most to the values of the sensitivity coefficients. These were found to be the loops containing PHGR and WHGR for the PH and WH sectors respectively. The sensitivity of PH and WH to perturbations in UH was found to be due to loops containing PHGR, PHO, and WHGR, rather than to loops contained entirely in the UH sector. Finally, sensitivity coefficients of the level variables with respect to a number of model parameters were 'found. The most sensitive were LFO and TR, although their contribution to overall model sensitivity was quite small when compared to the loop sensitivity described above"--Abstract, page ii.
Kern, Frank J.
Fannin, D. Ronald
Pagano, Sylvester J., 1924-2006
Electrical and Computer Engineering
M.S. in Electrical Engineering
University of Missouri--Rolla
vi, 63 pages
© 1971 Nicola Ann Nelson, All rights reserved.
Thesis - Open Access
Library of Congress Subject Headings
City planning -- Mathematical models
Sensitivity theory (Mathematics)
Print OCLC #
Electronic OCLC #
Link to Catalog Record
Nelson, Nicola Ann, "Perturbation and sensitivity analysis of an urban model" (1971). Masters Theses. 7218.