Masters Theses


Development of a method of forecasting electric utility coal consumption during the early operating period of a new base load power plant


"When a new base load plant begins producing electrical power, outages will occur due to problems with its many systems and components. As these problems are corrected, the outages will become less frequent and of shorter duration. Eventually, the problems characteristic of early operation will no longer have an effect on plant operation, and the plant equivalent availability will reach a steady-state. During the period required to achieve this steady-state, the other plants in the utility system, some of which are coal-fired, will experience reductions in operating time, their coal consumption will be reduced, and inventories that are based on consumption can be reduced. The rate at which these reductions can occur is a function of the loading order of the other plants, their generating capacity, the changing system load shape, and the rate of increase of the new plant availability. The first three factors are readily available to utility management; the fourth must be obtained from the early operating statistics of generating units similar to the new plant in question. A computer model, written in WATFIV language, simulates the monthly load duration curves anticipated during the start-up phase. The curves are modeled as piecewise linear functions using twenty-one straight segments. The plant loading order is superimposed under the monthly curves, and the changing areas of the plant regions are used to construct a schedule of coal consumption as the new plant availability improves. The capabilities of this model are demonstrated by simulating a nine-plant non- interconnected electric utility experiencing the initial operation of a new base load generating plant, and the resulting schedule of expected decreases in coal consumption is constructed"--Abstract, pages ii-iii.


Omurtag, Yildirim

Committee Member(s)

Brooks, William A.
Richards, Earl F., 1923-


Engineering Management and Systems Engineering

Degree Name

M.S. in Engineering Management


University of Missouri--Rolla

Publication Date



ix, 89 pages


© 1984 John Nicholas Stolwyk, All rights reserved.

Document Type

Thesis - Citation

File Type




Subject Headings

Electric power consumption -- Forecasting
Electric power production -- Computer simulation

Thesis Number

T 5112

Print OCLC #


Link to Catalog Record

Full-text not available: Request this publication directly from Missouri S&T Library or contact your local library.

This document is currently not available here.

Share My Thesis If you are the author of this work and would like to grant permission to make it openly accessible to all, please click the button above.