A Versatile Probability Model of Photovoltaic Generation Using Pair Copula Construction
Photovoltaic (PV) generation is increasingly popular in power systems. The nonlinear dependence associated with a large number of distributed PV sources adds the complexity to construct an accurate probability model and negatively affects confidence levels and reliability, thereby resulting in a more challenging operation of the systems. Most probability models have many restrictions when constructing multiple PV sources with complex dependence. This paper proposes a versatile probability model of PV generation on the basis of pair copula construction. In order to tackle the computational burden required to construct pair copula in high-dimensional cases, a systematic simplification technique is utilized that can significantly reduce the computational effort while preserving satisfactory precision. The proposed method can simplify the modeling procedure and provide a flexible and optimal probability model for the PV generation with complex dependence. The proposed model is tested using a set of historical data from colocated PV sites. It is then applied to the probabilistic load flow (PLF) study of the IEEE 118-bus system. The results demonstrate the effectiveness and accuracy of the proposed model.
W. Wu et al., "A Versatile Probability Model of Photovoltaic Generation Using Pair Copula Construction," IEEE Transactions on Sustainable Energy, vol. 6, no. 4, pp. 1337-1345, Institute of Electrical and Electronics Engineers (IEEE), Oct 2015.
The definitive version is available at https://doi.org/10.1109/TSTE.2015.2434934
Electrical and Computer Engineering
National Natural Science Foundation of China
Ministry of Science and Technology of the People's Republic of China. 863 Program
Key Laboratory of Control of Power Transmission and Transformation, Ministry of Education
State Energy Smart Grid R&D Center
Keywords and Phrases
Electric load flow; Photovoltaic cells; Computational burden; Computational effort; IEEE 118-bus system; Modeling procedure; Nonlinear dependence; Probability modeling; Probability; Multiple dependence; Pair copula; Photovoltaic (PV) generation; Probabilistic load flow (PLF); Simplification
International Standard Serial Number (ISSN)
Article - Journal
© 2015 Institute of Electrical and Electronics Engineers (IEEE), All rights reserved.
01 Oct 2015