Mars Sample Return Earth Entry System Micrometeoroid and Orbital Debris Risk Uncertainty Analysis
Abstract
Spacecraft designers and operators use micrometeoroid and orbital debris (MMOD) risk assessments to predict the probability that an MMOD particle impact will cause a critical failure to their systems. An important aspect of MMOD risk and associated requirements is the treatment of uncertainty, often difficult to quantify or even estimate for many elements of MMOD risk. There are several sources of uncertainty in every MMOD risk assessment, and previous analyses have addressed some, at least from a qualitative standpoint. This paper describes recent efforts to estimate MMOD risk uncertainty due to uncertainties in inputs to the MMOD risk assessment process for a portion of the planned Mars Sample Return campaign. The paper explores how sources of uncertainty for the meteoroid environment model and ballistic limit equations were estimated and how applying those uncertainty bounds influenced MMOD risk. Uncertainty bounds for the meteoroid environment were defined by estimating upper and lower bounds for meteoroid flux as a function of heliocentric distance, given by the Meteoroid Engineering Model version 3. Ballistic limit equation uncertainty bounds were given as a percentage increase or decrease in impacting-particle critical diameter. The results demonstrate the relative effect each input source uncertainty had on the overall risk.
Recommended Citation
M. D. Squire and V. Cabrera and E. Christiansen and A. Jenkin and K. Hoffman and Q. McKown and P. Parker and G. Peterson and B. V. Sarli and W. P. Schonberg and K. Steward and B. Tulaba and J. Williamsen, "Mars Sample Return Earth Entry System Micrometeoroid and Orbital Debris Risk Uncertainty Analysis," International Journal of Impact Engineering, vol. 203, article no. 105362, Elsevier, Sep 2025.
The definitive version is available at https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ijimpeng.2025.105362
Department(s)
Civil, Architectural and Environmental Engineering
Keywords and Phrases
Meteoroids; MMOD; Risk assessment; Uncertainty
International Standard Serial Number (ISSN)
0734-743X
Document Type
Article - Journal
Document Version
Citation
File Type
text
Language(s)
English
Rights
© 2025 Elsevier, All rights reserved.
Publication Date
01 Sep 2025
Comments
NASA Engineering and Safety Center, Grant None