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| Title: | Updating belief in concept selection of a public project using a mathematical model |
| Author (s): | Takai, Shun |
| Department/Lab Affiliations: | Design Engineering Center Intelligent Systems Center Interdisciplinary Engineering |
| Keywords: | Belief update Concept selection Decision analysis Mathematical model Option Public project |
| Issue Date: | 2006 |
| Publisher: | American Society of Mechanical Engineers |
| Citation: | Takai, S., “Updating Belief in Concept Selection of a Public Project Using a Mathematical Model,” Proceedings of DETC/CIE 2006 ASME 2006 Intl Design Engineering & Computers and Information in Engineering Conferences, Philadelphia, PA. DETC2006-99607. |
| Abstract: | Acquiring information about uncertainty and updating belief before making the final decision are important steps in decision analysis. In this paper, a national laboratory (lab hereafter) uses decision analysis to choose the optimal project proposal for a public project submitted to the government. A project proposal consists of a system concept (system technology and specifications) and a budget. When choosing a project proposal, the lab may not know what might happen when the cost of the project exceeds the budget. If the cost only exceeds the budget for a small amount, the government may allow the project to continue. On the other hand, if the cost substantially exceeds the budget, the project may be cancelled. To assess this uncertainty, experts' opinions are useful source of information. However, experts' opinions may not always be available. This paper proposes a mathematical model to simulate the government's actions and to update the lab's belief about this uncertainty when experts' opinions cannot be obtained. Information obtained from analyzing a mathematical model should help the lab update its belief and make better decisions. |
| Type: | Article - Conference proceedings text |
| In Title: | Proceedings of DETC/CIE 2006 ASME 2006 Intl Design Engineering & Computers and Information in Engineering Conferences September 2006, Philadelphia, Pennsylvania USA (DETC2006) |
| Copyright Notice: | This material is presented to ensure timely dissemination of scholarly and technical work. Copyright and all rights therein are retained by authors or by other copyright holders. All persons copying this information are expected to adhere to the terms and constraints invoked by each author's copyright. In most cases, these works may not be reposted without the explicit permission of the copyright holder. FULL COPYRIGHT INFORMATION: |
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| title | Updating belief in concept selection of a public project using a mathematical model |
| contributor.author | Takai, Shun |
| contributor.deptlab | Design Engineering Center |
| contributor.deptlab | Intelligent Systems Center |
| contributor.deptlab | Interdisciplinary Engineering |
| subject | Belief update |
| subject | Concept selection |
| subject | Decision analysis |
| subject | Mathematical model |
| subject | Option |
| subject | Public project |
| date.issued | 2006 |
| publisher | American Society of Mechanical Engineers |
| identifier.citation | Takai, S., “Updating Belief in Concept Selection of a Public Project Using a Mathematical Model,” Proceedings of DETC/CIE 2006 ASME 2006 Intl Design Engineering & Computers and Information in Engineering Conferences, Philadelphia, PA. DETC2006-99607. |
| identifier.pub.URI | |
| description.abstract | Acquiring information about uncertainty and updating belief before making the final decision are important steps in decision analysis. In this paper, a national laboratory (lab hereafter) uses decision analysis to choose the optimal project proposal for a public project submitted to the government. A project proposal consists of a system concept (system technology and specifications) and a budget. When choosing a project proposal, the lab may not know what might happen when the cost of the project exceeds the budget. If the cost only exceeds the budget for a small amount, the government may allow the project to continue. On the other hand, if the cost substantially exceeds the budget, the project may be cancelled. To assess this uncertainty, experts' opinions are useful source of information. However, experts' opinions may not always be available. This paper proposes a mathematical model to simulate the government's actions and to update the lab's belief about this uncertainty when experts' opinions cannot be obtained. Information obtained from analyzing a mathematical model should help the lab update its belief and make better decisions. |
| type | Article - Conference proceedings |
| type.DCMIType | text |
| type.status | Final version |
| rights | This material is presented to ensure timely dissemination of scholarly and technical work. Copyright and all rights therein are retained by authors or by other copyright holders. All persons copying this information are expected to adhere to the terms and constraints invoked by each author's copyright. In most cases, these works may not be reposted without the explicit permission of the copyright holder. |
| rights.URI | |
| relation.isPartOf | Proceedings of DETC/CIE 2006 ASME 2006 Intl Design Engineering & Computers and Information in Engineering Conferences September 2006, Philadelphia, Pennsylvania USA (DETC2006) |
| date.accessioned | 2007-04-11T17:00:48Z |
| date.available | 2008-05-08T15:44:55Z |
| identifier.persist.URI |