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| Title: | Developing beliefs about the cost of systems in a conceptual design phase |
| Author (s): | Takai, Shun |
| Department/Lab Affiliations: | Design Engineering Center Intelligent Systems Center Interdisciplinary Engineering |
| Keywords: | Concept selection Cost-tolerance function Design matrix Lifecycle cost |
| Issue Date: | 2006 |
| Publisher: | American Society of Mechanical Engineers (ASME) |
| Citation: | Takai, S., 2006, “Developing Beliefs about the Cost of Systems in a Conceptual Design Phase,” Proceedings of 2006 ASME International Mechanical Engineering Congress and Exposition, November 2006, Chicago, Illinois USA IMECE2006-15013. |
| Abstract: | In a conceptual design phase, engineers need to estimate, as accurately as possible, the cost of system developed from each concept (cost of concept). If engineers overestimate cost, engineers may be forced to unnecessarily cancel system development. On the other hand, if engineers underestimate cost, the final system may not be as profitable as initially expected. When engineers make a critical decision to select a concept, the dilemma is that there is typically no or limited information to accurately estimate cost of concept. This paper proposes a belief-based approach for estimating a cost of system in a conceptual design phase. In the proposed approach, engineers benchmark existing systems in the market that are similar to the new system. For these benchmarked systems, engineers estimate costs by subtracting profit margins from observed prices. Engineers develop a distribution of cost for the new system from these estimated costs. |
| Type: | Article - Conference proceedings text |
| In Title: | Proceedings of 2006 ASME International Mechanical Engineering Congress and Exposition November 2006, Chicago, Illinois USA |
| Copyright Notice: | This material is presented to ensure timely dissemination of scholarly and technical work. Copyright and all rights therein are retained by authors or by other copyright holders. All persons copying this information are expected to adhere to the terms and constraints invoked by each author's copyright. In most cases, these works may not be reposted without the explicit permission of the copyright holder. FULL COPYRIGHT INFORMATION: |
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| Link to this page: |
| title | Developing beliefs about the cost of systems in a conceptual design phase |
| contributor.author | Takai, Shun |
| contributor.deptlab | Design Engineering Center |
| contributor.deptlab | Intelligent Systems Center |
| contributor.deptlab | Interdisciplinary Engineering |
| subject | Concept selection |
| subject | Cost-tolerance function |
| subject | Design matrix |
| subject | Lifecycle cost |
| date.issued | 2006 |
| publisher | American Society of Mechanical Engineers (ASME) |
| identifier.citation | Takai, S., 2006, “Developing Beliefs about the Cost of Systems in a Conceptual Design Phase,” Proceedings of 2006 ASME International Mechanical Engineering Congress and Exposition, November 2006, Chicago, Illinois USA IMECE2006-15013. |
| identifier.pub.URI | |
| description.abstract | In a conceptual design phase, engineers need to estimate, as accurately as possible, the cost of system developed from each concept (cost of concept). If engineers overestimate cost, engineers may be forced to unnecessarily cancel system development. On the other hand, if engineers underestimate cost, the final system may not be as profitable as initially expected. When engineers make a critical decision to select a concept, the dilemma is that there is typically no or limited information to accurately estimate cost of concept. This paper proposes a belief-based approach for estimating a cost of system in a conceptual design phase. In the proposed approach, engineers benchmark existing systems in the market that are similar to the new system. For these benchmarked systems, engineers estimate costs by subtracting profit margins from observed prices. Engineers develop a distribution of cost for the new system from these estimated costs. |
| type | Article - Conference proceedings |
| type.DCMIType | text |
| type.status | Final version |
| rights | This material is presented to ensure timely dissemination of scholarly and technical work. Copyright and all rights therein are retained by authors or by other copyright holders. All persons copying this information are expected to adhere to the terms and constraints invoked by each author's copyright. In most cases, these works may not be reposted without the explicit permission of the copyright holder. |
| rights.URI | |
| relation.isPartOf | Proceedings of 2006 ASME International Mechanical Engineering Congress and Exposition November 2006, Chicago, Illinois USA |
| date.accessioned | 2007-04-11T17:00:48Z |
| date.available | 2008-05-08T18:55:39Z |
| identifier.persist.URI |