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| Title: | Decision-analytic concept selection and value of information in a public project |
| Author (s): | Takai, Shun Ishii, K. |
| Department/Lab Affiliations: | Design Engineering Center Intelligent Systems Center Interdisciplinary Engineering |
| Keywords: | Concept selection Decision analysis Option Sensitivity analysis Value of information |
| Issue Date: | 2005 |
| Publisher: | American Society of Mechanical Engineers (ASME) |
| Citation: | Takai, S., and Ishii, K., 2005, “Decision-Analytic Concept Selection and Value of Information in a Public Project,” Proceedings of 2005 ASME Design Engineering Technical Conferences, Long Beach, CA. DETC-85433. |
| Abstract: | In product development, firms choose product concepts in the conceptual design phase and develop final products from the chosen concepts. Concept selection is one of the most difficult decisions in product development since it involves large degrees of uncertainties. This paper presents a framework for decision-analytic concept selection and information gathering in a public project, in which the government has an option to cancel the project if the cost of the project exceeds the budget. In this framework, a customer (e.g., the government) has an option to cancel the project instead of a decision-maker (e.g., a national laboratory). In information gathering, this paper presents, first, sensitivity analysis that enables engineers to investigate whether it is beneficial to collect additional information about uncertainties, and second, the value of perfect information in determining the maximum monetary resource they should spend for such activity. Finally, an illustrative example demonstrates decision-analytic concept selection, sensitivity analysis, and the value of perfect information for a next generation linear collider. |
| Type: | Article - Conference proceedings text |
| In Title: | Proceedings of 2005 ASME Design Engineering Technical Conferences |
| Copyright Notice: | This material is presented to ensure timely dissemination of scholarly and technical work. Copyright and all rights therein are retained by authors or by other copyright holders. All persons copying this information are expected to adhere to the terms and constraints invoked by each author's copyright. In most cases, these works may not be reposted without the explicit permission of the copyright holder. FULL COPYRIGHT INFORMATION: |
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| Link to this page: |
| title | Decision-analytic concept selection and value of information in a public project |
| contributor.author | Takai, Shun |
| contributor.author | Ishii, K. |
| contributor.deptlab | Design Engineering Center |
| contributor.deptlab | Intelligent Systems Center |
| contributor.deptlab | Interdisciplinary Engineering |
| subject | Concept selection |
| subject | Decision analysis |
| subject | Option |
| subject | Sensitivity analysis |
| subject | Value of information |
| date.issued | 2005 |
| publisher | American Society of Mechanical Engineers (ASME) |
| identifier.citation | Takai, S., and Ishii, K., 2005, “Decision-Analytic Concept Selection and Value of Information in a Public Project,” Proceedings of 2005 ASME Design Engineering Technical Conferences, Long Beach, CA. DETC-85433. |
| identifier.pub.URI | |
| description.abstract | In product development, firms choose product concepts in the conceptual design phase and develop final products from the chosen concepts. Concept selection is one of the most difficult decisions in product development since it involves large degrees of uncertainties. This paper presents a framework for decision-analytic concept selection and information gathering in a public project, in which the government has an option to cancel the project if the cost of the project exceeds the budget. In this framework, a customer (e.g., the government) has an option to cancel the project instead of a decision-maker (e.g., a national laboratory). In information gathering, this paper presents, first, sensitivity analysis that enables engineers to investigate whether it is beneficial to collect additional information about uncertainties, and second, the value of perfect information in determining the maximum monetary resource they should spend for such activity. Finally, an illustrative example demonstrates decision-analytic concept selection, sensitivity analysis, and the value of perfect information for a next generation linear collider. |
| type | Article - Conference proceedings |
| type.DCMIType | text |
| type.status | Final version |
| rights | This material is presented to ensure timely dissemination of scholarly and technical work. Copyright and all rights therein are retained by authors or by other copyright holders. All persons copying this information are expected to adhere to the terms and constraints invoked by each author's copyright. In most cases, these works may not be reposted without the explicit permission of the copyright holder. |
| rights.URI | |
| relation.isPartOf | Proceedings of 2005 ASME Design Engineering Technical Conferences |
| date.accessioned | 2007-04-11T17:00:48Z |
| date.available | 2008-05-09T14:48:39Z |
| identifier.persist.URI |