Collision Probability with Gaussian Mixture Orbit Uncertainty
An extension for computing the probability of collision between two space objects was introduced when the uncertainties of the space objects are represented by Gaussian mixture distributions. Monte Carlo simulations have been used to compute the collision probability. The first method is based on the volume swept out by the hardball, whose dynamics relative to the other object are governed by the relative motion model. For short-term encounters with linear relative motion, the swept-out volume is approximately a cylinder. The second method, also known as the direct method, is based on the influx of the relative position probability distribution into the hardball which is assumed to be stationary. In each of these cases, the proposed method can be used to obtain the probability of collision between two space objects.
K. J. DeMars et al., "Collision Probability with Gaussian Mixture Orbit Uncertainty," Journal of Guidance, Control, and Dynamics, vol. 37, no. 3, pp. 979-984, American Institute of Aeronautics and Astronautics (AIAA), May 2014.
The definitive version is available at https://doi.org/10.2514/1.62308
Mechanical and Aerospace Engineering
Keywords and Phrases
Monte Carlo methods; Transport properties; Collision probability; Direct method; Gaussian mixture distribution; Gaussian mixtures; Orbit uncertainties; Relative motion; Relative motion models; Relative positions; Probability distributions
International Standard Serial Number (ISSN)
Article - Journal
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