Title

Collision Probability with Gaussian Mixture Orbit Uncertainty

Abstract

An extension for computing the probability of collision between two space objects was introduced when the uncertainties of the space objects are represented by Gaussian mixture distributions. Monte Carlo simulations have been used to compute the collision probability. The first method is based on the volume swept out by the hardball, whose dynamics relative to the other object are governed by the relative motion model. For short-term encounters with linear relative motion, the swept-out volume is approximately a cylinder. The second method, also known as the direct method, is based on the influx of the relative position probability distribution into the hardball which is assumed to be stationary. In each of these cases, the proposed method can be used to obtain the probability of collision between two space objects.

Department(s)

Mechanical and Aerospace Engineering

Keywords and Phrases

Monte Carlo methods; Transport properties; Collision probability; Direct method; Gaussian mixture distribution; Gaussian mixtures; Orbit uncertainties; Relative motion; Relative motion models; Relative positions; Probability distributions

International Standard Serial Number (ISSN)

0731-5090

Document Type

Article - Journal

Document Version

Citation

File Type

text

Language(s)

English

Rights

© 2014 American Institute of Aeronautics and Astronautics (AIAA), All rights reserved.


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