A Bayesian Framework for Predicting Customer Need Distributions
Predicting future customer needs is critical when selecting a concept for a new product. Customer need prediction is challenging because customer needs may change as external factors that influence needs change over time. This paper proposes a Bayesian framework to predict future distribution of customer needs by incorporating forecasts of external factors and their corresponding accuracies. The framework is demonstrated by an illustrative example in which designers predict future distribution of a customer need ("Fuel Efficient") based on forecast of an external factor (gasoline price index) and the accuracy of the forecast. The benefit of incorporating forecasts of the external factor on concept selection and a sensitivity analysis of concept selection on the accuracy of the forecast are demonstrated in the illustrative example. Copyright © 2010 by ASME.
S. Takai et al., "A Bayesian Framework for Predicting Customer Need Distributions," Proceedings of the ASME Design Engineering Technical Conference, American Society of Mechanical Engineers (ASME), Jan 2010.
The definitive version is available at http://dx.doi.org/10.1115/DETC2010-28230
ASME 2010 International Design Engineering Technical Conferences and Computers and Information in Engineering Conference, IDETC/CIE2010
Mechanical and Aerospace Engineering
Keywords and Phrases
Bayesian Updating; Customer Needs; Distribution; Fuel Efficient; Gasoline Price
Article - Conference proceedings
© 2010 American Society of Mechanical Engineers (ASME), All rights reserved.