Monte Carlo Simulations of Wind Speed Data

Abstract

A new Monte Carlo simulation procedure and nearby regional weather station data are used to predict wind speed and turbine energy. The evaluation of the predication values used cumulative distribution function (CDF) graphs. The predication process employed Weibull shape and scale values developed from 1, 12, 20 and 24 years of record for each weather station. Simulation using one year of wind speed data of a weather station located downwind of the wind turbine site resulted in the greatest match of simulation results to the measured values[ED1]. Most simulations of energy values were a closer match to the measured values than those of wind speed. A closer match was defined as simulated values in the CDF central range of 10 to 75 percent which is also a 25 to 75 percent probability factor.

Department(s)

Geosciences and Geological and Petroleum Engineering

Keywords and Phrases

Economic factors; Environmental engineering; Groundwater management; Monte carlo simulation; Wind energy; Wind turbines; Central ranges; Cumulative distribution function; Economic factors; Energy value; Regional weather; Scale value; Simulation result; Weather stations; Weibull shape; Wind speed data

International Standard Serial Number (ISSN)

0309-524X

Document Type

Article - Journal

Document Version

Citation

File Type

text

Language(s)

English

Rights

© 2009 Multi-Science Publishing Co. Ltd, All rights reserved.

Publication Date

01 Dec 2009

Link to Full Text

Share

 
COinS