Doctoral Dissertations

Abstract

"Two probabilistic models are offered as a means for quantitatively determining contingency in a lump-sum bid. The first model is based on the isolated project and requires subjective evaluation of probabilities associated with the individual elements of the estimate. Contingency is defined as a function of the standard deviation of project field costs. Procedures are developed to obtain the variance of the total field cost from three-value estimates of the primary quantities. The second model considers the business as a stochastic process with an initial risk reserve and a positive risk loading, and contingency in this model is a function of the risk loading. Output from the project model is found to be approximately normal and insensitive to the type of input distribution. Covariance among accounts in the estimate are shown to be highly significant. The business model produces a significantly lower value for contingency than the project model and indicates that contingency is a lower bound on the contractor's fee and must be handled in a fiscally responsible manner"--Abstract, page ii.

Advisor(s)

Andrews, William A., 1922-2009

Committee Member(s)

Hansen, Peter G., 1927-2010
Best, John, 1925-2015
Senne, Joseph H.
Gillett, Billy E.

Department(s)

Civil, Architectural and Environmental Engineering

Degree Name

Ph. D. in Civil Engineering

Publisher

University of Missouri--Rolla

Publication Date

1972

Pagination

ix, 97 pages

Note about bibliography

Includes bibliographical references (pages 60-61).

Rights

© 1972 James E. Spooner, All rights reserved.

Document Type

Dissertation - Open Access

File Type

text

Language

English

Library of Congress Subject Headings

Building -- Estimates
Letting of contracts
Computer simulation -- Design

Thesis Number

T 2635

Print OCLC #

6038986

Electronic OCLC #

878049430

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