Uncertainty Considerations for Ballistic Limit Equations for Aerospace Structural Systems
The overall risk for any spacecraft system is typically determined using a Probabilistic Risk Assessment (PRA). A PRA determines the overall risk associated with a particular mission by factoring in all known risks to the spacecraft during its mission. The threat to mission and human life posed by the mircro-meteoroid and orbital debris (MMOD) environment is one of the risks. NASA uses the BUMPER II program to provide point estimate predictions of MMOD risk for the Space Shuttle and the ISS. However, BUMPER II does not provide uncertainty bounds or confidence intervals for its predictions. In this paper, we present possible approaches through which uncertainty bounds can be developed for the various damage prediction and ballistic limit equations encoded within the Shuttle and Station versions of BUMPER II.
W. P. Schonberg et al., "Uncertainty Considerations for Ballistic Limit Equations for Aerospace Structural Systems," Proceedings of the 2005 ASME International Mechanical Engineering Congress and Exposition, American Society of Mechanical Engineers (ASME), Nov 2005.
2005 ASME International Mechanical Engineering Congress and Exposition
Civil, Architectural and Environmental Engineering
Keywords and Phrases
Probabilistic Risk Assessment; Ballistic Limits; Micro-Meteoroid and Orbital Debris Environment; Predicting Damage
Article - Conference proceedings
© 2005 American Society of Mechanical Engineers (ASME), All rights reserved.